The “science” component of “climate science” has seemed for some time to have
been largely eclipsed by rhetoric, sound-bites, grinding axes, and the shrill
voices of the blogosphere. Attempts at lowering the emotional level of the
“debate” semantically - “global climate disruption” instead of global warming,
climate “cynics” (avoiding the unpalatable connotations of “deniers”) – make
little difference; the very human nature of cognitive biases will always win
out. Although it is not my intent, for the moment at least, to enter the fray of
post-climategate and post IPCC review turbulence, I would suggest that one thing
is clear: the loss of trust in not only climate science but science as a whole
is both tragic and potentially hugely damaging.
In this sad state of affairs, it seems to be a fact of life that, in order to
find primary sources and reliable voices of reason, a complex and often highly
irritating navigation of the blogosphere is necessary – much of the discussion
(again, often a euphemism) takes place there, and much of it is vituperative,
tribal, and composed of anonymous ad hominem commentary. It has
therefore been with some pleasure that I have recently been following a new
climate science blog, Climate etc., the initial welcome and purpose for
which can be found here.
To quote:
This blog provides a forum for the exchange of ideas about climate science
and the science-policy interface. Climate Etc. is envisioned as a gathering
place for climate researchers, academics and technical experts from other
fields, citizen scientists, and the interested public. Open minds and critical
thinking are required, and stimulating discussion and group learning is
expected…The climate blogosphere is a vibrant environment but the signal is
often hidden by the noise. Towards separating the signal from the noise,
Climate Etc. will experiment with different formats…The idea is to have a
focused and snark-free environment in which academics and other technical
experts with little or no blogging experience will feel comfortable engaging
with the broader community.
The blog has been set up by Judith Curry, who is a hurricane science and
atmospheric modelling specialist and has been the Chair of the School of Earth
and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology since 2002. I
met Judith at the Scifoo
event a couple of months ago; I talked to her initially because the sandfish
robotics work that had fascinated me was done at Georgia Tech but our
conversations moved on to the issues faced by climate science and how to better
deal with describing uncertainty (Judith kindly joined me in facilitating a
discussion of this at the event). Despite her reputation as an academic
scientist, she had recently been tarred and feathered in certain corners of the
blogosphere for simply recommending that scientists should read Andrew
Montford’s book, The Hockey Stick Illusion (see, for example, this
review). I have now read it, and found it as compelling as a well-written
detective story – I recommend it, but the details are for another time. Judith
has started Climate etc. with the aspiration of providing a rational
place for discussion of climate science issues, free, as far as possible, of
“noise.” In my view, she has succeeded: her own posts are interesting, balanced,
and provocative in the right way, and the commentary is largely free of
rhetoric, filled with useful links, and, astonishingly, largely written by
people who use their real names.
But I’m writing here about Judith’s blog not simply because I wanted to
recommend it, but to follow up on her post from a few days ago, Pakistan on my
mind. In it, she describes the fact that, in the aftermath of
the devastating floods, “Most of the response of the climate research community
to this catastrophe has focused on the attribution of the floods, i.e. whether
greenhouse warming played any role in causing the floods,” citing, for example,
Christiana Figueres, head of the U.N.’s Framework Convention on Climate Change,
who stated that
“All these events are constant reminders to governments that they need to deal
in a consummate manner together to address climate change.” Judith asks two
compelling questions: with what confidence can we ascribe these events to
climate change and, regardless, is this the right approach to attempting to
understand, manage, and ameliorate the impact of these events? The post and the
(extensive) comments are informative and well worth reading. But I was
particularly interested in the following section:
...the Climate
Himalaya Initiative argues that engineering structures and human error may
have played a major role in the catastrophe. There are a substantial number of
barrages (dams) on the Indus
River that support irrigation and hydropower. The flood occurred when the
rising river bed (owing to the huge silt deposition in the upstream areas) was
trapped by the Taunsa barrage, obstructing the water flow. These heavy silt
loads were then transported through western tributaries of the Indus River.
Construction of protective levees and dykes has also contributed to raising the
riverbed and the sedimentation of upstream areas; moreover, the rising riverbed
levels have rendered protective levees ineffective.
So, I thought that I would follow up a little (and my apologies – this
follow-up has evolved into something that is certainly not “little”). The Indus
system is huge, fascinating, and complex. A few facts:
- The Indus itself is over 3000 kilometres long, rises on the Tibetan Plateau,
and drains an area of more than a million square kilometres (see the map and
satellite image at the head of the post – and note the areas marked “modified
landscape”).
- The vast network of tributaries flow into the Indus from Afghanistan, China,
and India as well as from within Pakistan. The south-eastern tributaries are
controlled by India, under the terms of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960.
- The Indus is, by nature, one the largest sediment-producing rivers in the
world, transporting debris from a huge area of the Himalayas where erosion rates
can be up to 4 mm per year.
- The sediment load of the river (the suspended stuff – see my discussion of
what we don’t know about bed
load) varies enormously during the course of a year – during the monsoon and
the summer snow melt the river will carry up to a thousand times as much
sediment as it does at its low point.
- There are ten major dams and countless smaller dams and barrages along the
Indus and its tributaries: it has been effectively engineered into the largest
integrated irrigation system in the world.
As it emerges from the Himalayas, the Indus itself carries around 300 million
tons of suspended sediment per year – let’s say around 15 million
good-sized-dump-trucks-full. Prior to 1947, much of this sediment settled on the
plains, but still a substantial volume reached the delta which was typically
growing out into the ocean at a rate of 30 metres per year. But today, as it
emerges from the mountains, the river reaches the huge reservoir of the Tarbela
dam:
Downstream of the dam, the suspended sediment load is a mere 2 million dump
trucks per year, the rest trapped behind the dam. Well, not right behind the
dam, but rather dumped in the reservoir. When the dam was completed, in 1976,
the estimate was that it would have a lifespan lasting only until 2030, by which
time the reservoir would be completely filled with sediment. This proved to be
pessimistic, but the fact is that 6 billion tons of sand, silt and mud had
accumulated in the reservoir in the first twenty-five years of the project’s
life. And all that sediment is building up in a huge delta below the surface of
the water, slowly growing downstream towards the dam; not only would an
earthquake potential set off a devastating underwater landslide, threatening the
dam, but, even without such an event, the delta is fast approaching the intakes
and tunnels of the dam. So, what can be done about this?
Well, unfortunately, the answer requires a slight diversion into the arcane
but vital concept of a river’s base level. I made an attempt to
describe the concept in the book:
Take a map of a river and run a piece of string along its winding course;
then straighten out the string and draw a graph of the river’s elevation versus
the distance from its source—the profile of the river. For any river at any
given time, there are two points that are externally fixed: sea level and the
elevation of the source of the river in the mountains. Between these two points,
the river is free to behave in any number of ways. For the river, sea level is
the primary base level, its ultimate terminus, below which no part of the
river can drop (to avoid the impossible feat of flowing uphill). Base level is a
concept universally agreed on and at the same time hotly debated, but the
principle is clear: change a river’s base level by raising or dropping sea
level, and the river must change its behaviour. If base level drops, the river
must erode, cutting downward to reflect this. If base level rises, the river
must build up its profile by depositing sediment. A change in base level changes
the gradient of the river’s profile, requiring the river to make changes in
order to smooth out that profile.
So sea level is the primary base level and sea level changes profoundly alter
a river’s behaviour and architecture. But put a dam in the middle of a river and
you have introduced an entirely new local base level, and, upstream of
that dam, the river responds. You have raised the base level from the natural
altitude of the river’s valley before the dam and therefore the river reacts by
depositing its sediment load. If the level of the reservoir is maintained as
constant then the system reaches a new stable state, but if the level varies,
then the river continues to respond by erosion or deposition. In the case of the
Tarbela delta problem, the reservoir level has been raised to induce more
sediment to be deposited upstream, therefore depriving the delta of sustenance.
But that upstream deposition continues to completely modify the geometry of the
valley (that had anyway not been natural since the dam’s construction) – and the
environment on which depends the livelihood of everyone who lives there. The
floods upstream of the Tarbela dam were appalling.
So this is but a vivid example of how the entire Indus system has been
modified. It is modified every time a dam is built and it is modified every time
the level of water in a reservoir is changed. It is a totally and dynamically
unnatural system, deprived of sediment and, today, virtually no sediment at all
reaches the delta of the Indus. Floods on the scale of those recently
experienced would always have been devastating, but their impact is exacerbated
by the wholesale manmade modification of an entire river system.
In her conclusion, “Looking forward,” Judith Curry writes:
While climate researchers and policy makers ponder whether the flood can be
attributed to global warming, it seems to us that this emphasis diverts
attention from actually using climate, meteorological and hydrological knowledge
and research in the application of pressing current needs in the developing
world. Substantial benefits would accrue directly for developing countries, as
well as indirectly for other countries concerned with global security, by
applying advanced research and technologies to support:
- improved river routing models for major rivers
- advanced techniques for providing probabilistic flood forecasts on
timescales exceeding two days and integration of these forecasts into early
warning systems, preparedness and contingency plans, and rehabilitation measures
- application of advanced dynamical and statistical methods to assess future
risk of floods and droughts, and integrate this information into engineering
assessments for future water structures
- improved probabilistic rainfall forecasts on timescales of days to weeks to
enable farmers to optimize agricultural decision making regarding planting and
harvesting.
Based upon our work in Bangladesh along these lines (see here and here), we have
demonstrated that such developments are feasible and can be successfully
integrated into national meteorological and hydrological services. We have
contacted the Pakistan Meteorological Department and have had discussions with
relevant personnel in USAID and UNDP regarding how we might help. The current
situation in Pakistan is mired in both national and international politics.
However, we hope that the international climate, meteorological and hydrological
communities can offer something to help Pakistan other than a debate over
whether global warming contributed to the floods and a mistake in the IPCC AR4
regarding the melting of the Himalayan glaciers.
Other than possibly adding a few more geological – and specifically
sedimentological – components to her list, I agree wholeheartedly and can only
wish her and her colleagues every success.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
For a further sense of the complexity of the Indus basin and the distribution
of dams and barrages, plus data on catchment flows in July and August this year,
here’s a map from the World Food Programme – the high resolution version can be
found here.
[For an overview of the role of dams in the Indus basin, see this paper from the International Commission on Large Dams. For details on sedimentation in the Tarbela dam reservoir, see http://www.adb.org/water/topics/dams/pdf/cspkmain.pdf,
and http://www.paralia.fr/cmcm/e01-28.pdf;
for an interesting piece of research on the sands
of the Indus, see “Petrology of Indus River sands: a key to interpret
erosion history of the Western Himalayan Syntaxis”; for extensive documentation
of the recent landslides in the upper reaches of the Indus system as well as of
the flooding, see Dave’s
Landslide Blog, written by Dave Petley, who is the Wilson
Professor of Hazard and Risk in the Department of Geography at Durham University
in the UK.]